Development Impact Analysis of Elgin-O’Hare West Bypass

SB Friedman is currently part of a team headed by CH2MHill that was engaged by IDOT to conduct a Tier II Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Elgin-O’Hare West Bypass (EO-WB) project. The EO-WB is a proposed, limited access highway system within the Chicago region that would potentially provide access to a new Western Terminal at O’Hare International Airport (O’Hare) and connect to major highways in the region, including I-90, I294 and I-290. The project area for the study encompasses over 120 square miles and overlaps 33 communities. Our scope of work includes the preparation of 2040 population and employment forecasts for the EO-WB Build and No-Build alternatives, in accordance with the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).

The EO-WB will act as a new western gateway to O’Hare, add several miles of new highway frontage and significantly improve regional accessibility. These enhancements are expected to considerably change the competitive position of the project area and likely attract corporate office, hotel, industrial and retail uses. To properly account for the significant development potential generated by the highway, we utilized a unique market-based approach for estimating the 2040 population and employment forecasts that included the following tasks:

• Top-down demand forecasts for all major real estate products. These forecasts were based on regional employment projections by economic sector, past development trends within the project area relative to the region, and the availability of redevelopable land suitable for various real estate products.

• Bottom up analyses to identify “Polygons of Change” or sites that were likely to change over the next 30 years, based on current land use conditions, vacancy levels, property value and community plans. Specific land uses and corresponding development densities were then assigned to these Polygons of Change based on community development goals and market factors.

• Synthesis and reconciliation of these approaches to ensure consistency between the approaches. The analysis allowed quantification of new net development and new jobs for both the Build and No Build scenarios at the site level.